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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/1800 UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 2000 km/s
Longitude (deg): 70W
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 75 deg

Notes: This CME is hard to model and get a good fit, so there is low confidence in timing. Our ENLIL model suggests arrival of 12/0200 UTC, but the forecast is at present 12/0700 UTC, with a wide margin of error of +/- 12 hours.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC

Lead Time: 31.32 hour(s)
Difference: 12.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-09-11T12:07Z

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